The difficulty of beating the random walk in forecasting spot foreign exchange rates is well documented, with the restricted VECM of Clarida and Taylor (1997) providing the primary challenge. We seek to extract the informational content of the forward rate term structure through the...

This working paper was written by Patrick Augustin (McGill University and Canadian Derivatives Institute), Mikhail Chernov (University of California Los Angeles, NBER and CEPR), Lukas Schmid (University of Southern California and CEPR) and Dongho Song (Johns Hopkins University).We show...

The recent financial crisis has spiked the credit and liquidity premia among financial products, and significant widening of basis spreads among Libors with different tenors and currencies has been observed in interest rate markets. Our previous work, "A Note on Construction of Multiple Swap...

Statistical analyses of forward interest rate behavior provide evidence that these rates share a common volatility. We develop a risk-neutral term structure model based on this assumption. The main feature of this model is that each discounted bond price is both an explicit local martingale and...

Currency derivatives are an important tool to manage foreign exchange risk, hedging. Organizations transacting, investing, or operating in other nations appreciate the possibility of managing currency risk. Investors, financial institutions, and businesses use currency derivatives to complement...

Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggest that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture...