This paper discusses two approaches for the analysis of multi-outcome lotteries. The first uses Cumulative Prospect Theory. The second is the Relative Utility Function, which strongly resembles the utility function hypothesized by Markowitz (1952). It is shown that the relative utility model...

This paper discusses solutions derived from lottery experiments using two alternative assumptions: that people perceive wealth changes as absolute amounts of money; and that people consider wealth changes as a proportion of some reference value dependant on the context of the problem under...

Prospect Theory (1979) and its Cumulative version (1992) argue for probability weighting to explain lottery choices. Decision Utility Theory presents an alternative solution, which makes no use of this concept. The new theory distinguishes decision and perception utility, postulates a double...

Artificial Intelligence (AI) scientists are challenged to create intelligent, autonomous agents that can make rational decisions. In this challenge, they confront two questions: what decision theory to follow and how to implement it in AI systems. This paper provides answers to these questions...

Shackle was one of the representative critics of probability calculus. His alternative decision theory was mathematically reformalized by Katzner till 1990s. Following the Katzner's reformalized framework, this paper presents a new interpretation of Shacklean theory by focusing on the common...

The majority consensus in the empirical literature is that probability weighting functions are typically inverse-S shaped, that is, people tend to overweight small and underweight large probabilities. A separate stream of literature has reported event-splitting effects (also called violations of...

This review considers two explanations for behavioral decision-making in reference to the certainty and framing effects. The findings from various paradigms such as a single questionnaire, gambles with repetition, and gambles guided by feedback are explained either by prospect theory or by...

It is here shown that the extension of expected utility theory to multiple periods destroys the axiomatic base by introducing timing contradictions in what the chooser knows at a single time point. It is shown that some of these timing contradictions remain even if, as Samuelson (1952) proposed,...

Expected Utility theory is not only applied to individual choices but also to ethical decisions, e.g. in cost-benefit analysis of climate change policy measures that affect future generations. In this context the crucial question arises whether EU theory is able to deal with 'catastrophic...

The use of risk management methodologies on IT projects is very important, but very little is understood about what drives this use. A review of the literature identified a range of potential drivers of this use, with the notion of use itself being resolved into two types: organizational level...