Cílem èlánku je ukázat interakci mezi indikaèními schopnostmi èasové struktury úrokových sazeb vzhledem k inflaci èi reálné ekonomické aktivitì a reakèní funkcí centrální banky v malém makroekonomickém modelu èeské ekonomiky. Autor nejprve argumentuje, že ohodnocení...

The article focuses on the development and performance of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. It is shown that the particulars of the Czech inflation-targeting regime developed from a rather specific setting toward a framework based on international best practices. Its performance is...

This paper asks to what extent the market prices in the future monetary policy decisions of the Czech National Bank (CNB), how this policy predictability has evolved over time, and whether the change in the central bank’s forecasting methodology in mid-2002 had any impact. Using a sample up to...

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency...

The paper argues that the prices of financial instruments contain usefulinformation about the development of different macroeconomic variables. Itsfocus lies in examining the ability of stock prices and of spread betweenlong and shor interest rates to predict real economic activity. We...

Expected inflation is a major decision factor of various economic agents. Since expected inflation is not directly observable, economists have been seeking ways of extracting market’s inflation expectations from observable variables. One of the most reliable sources of inflation expectations...

Using a simple single-equation approach, many studies have shown that the term structure of interest rates or its approximation – the term spread is a potentially useful indicator of future inflation and/or future real economic activity. We argue that these results may be biased due to the...

The paper offers a preliminary analysis of possible spontaneous euroization in the Czech economy. After a brief general introduction of the issue of currency substitution it specifically discusses two things. First, the transmission channels of potential spontaneous euroization, through which...

This paper asks to what extent were the last one hundred policy decisions taken by the Czech National Bank (CNB) considered predictable by the market. The results are threefold. First, CNB policy decisions can be considered as predictable on average. Second, policy predictability followed no...