Initially, the global financial crisis caused a surge of financial inflows, raising Chinese investment but this abated in 2008, to be replaced by a slowdown in export demand. The government’s key response has been to commit to an unprecedented fiscal expansion. Two oft-ignored consequences...

Initially, the global financial crisis caused a surge of financial inflows, raising Chinese investment but this abated in 2008, to be replaced by a slowdown in export demand. The government’s key response has been to commit to an unprecedented fiscal expansion. Two oft-ignored consequences...

Initially, the global financial crisis caused a surge of financial inflows to China, raising investment, but this abated in 2008, leaving a substantial contraction in export demand. The government’s key response was to commit to an unprecedented fiscal expansion. Two oftignored consequences...

The recent influx of financial capital to China implies expectations of continued real appreciation and, indeed, rapid expansion had previously led to real appreciations elsewhere in East Asia. In a world of open economies and differentiated traded goods, however, development-related...

International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector...

The analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. Recent stochastic population projections also yield wide error bounds. We discuss...

International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector...