We present a macroeconomic market experiment on the financial determination of exchange rates, and consider whether the assumption that belief formation be treated as a classical hypothesis test, which we label inferential expectations, can explain the effect of uncertainty on exchange rates. In...

A structural discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows that the underlying sources of earnings growth generate very different growth paths and equity values than assumed in traditional DCF calculations. Moreover, the structural DCF model can assess the impact of exogenous factors on valuation,...

This paper develops an improved measure of human capital. Using a Mincer specification of human capital, the improved measure takes into consideration rates of returns to schooling, education quality, and school dropouts. The paper applies the improved measure to evaluate national and global...

The paper analyzes the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies. Its emphasis is on a monetary union; one in which (some of) the governments are excessively ambitious. In contrast to conventional games, our novel game theoretic framework allows for stochastic timing of policy actions....

A new class of tests of contagion is proposed which identifies transmission channels of financial market crises through changes in higher order moments of the distribution of returns such as coskewness. Applying the framework to test for contagion in real estate and equity markets following the...

This paper asserts that the endowments of production factors cause cross-country differences in GDP per capita by generating disparities in the sectoral composition. For that purpose, we characterize the dynamic equilibrium of a two-sector endogenous growth model with many consumption goods that...

Indices of voting power are intended to measure the a priori degree of in.uence that a voter or party can expect to have in framing legislation or passing motions. Commonly used measures include those proposed by Shapley and Shubik (1954), Banzhaf (1965) and Deegan and Packel (1978). This paper...

We examine a two-sector model characterized by monopoly provision in market 1 and perfect competition in market 2. We follow the set up in Martin (1999), but we consider the case where goods 1 and 2 can be either substitutes or complements. With this framework, we analyse the profit sacrifice...

The orthodox assumption in the banking literature is that capital requirements are a binding constraint on banking behaviour. This is in conflict with the empirical observation that banks hold a bu¤er of capital well in excess of the minimum requirements. This paper develops a model where...