This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970-2005. We find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s and 1980s and from 2000 to date. These deviations are found to be substantially...

Standard tests of asset pricing models are based on the "iid"-normal assumption. We compare standard test results with those obtained from procedures that do not require "iid"-normality. Analysing unconditional and conditional asset pricing models, we find that the use of tests that consider...

Using principal components analysis, this paper derives a direct measure of movements in the level and slope of the certificate of deposit yield curve. Appealing to the efficient markets view of the term structure of interest rates, evidence is reported which suggests that changes in Treasury...

Using monthly, semi-annual and annual sampling frequencies from February 1974 to June 1996, we reject the mean-variance efficiency of the Australian stock market while supporting the view that conditional variances are not constant in time. Results indicate that unexpected movements in key...

This paper studies actual house prices relative to fundamental house prices. Using UK data and a time-varying present value approach, we find that deviations of house prices fromtheir fundamental value (as warranted by real disposable income) are significant but not dominated by speculative...

This paper examines the hypothesis that predictable variation in excess returns can be explained by future business conditions. Using GARCH-M methodology and data on U.K. share returns over the period 1965-92, the authors find that excess returns are able to capture expectations regarding the...

This paper examines the hypothesis that the predictable components of U.K. shares and bonds are related to business conditions. Financial market variables, such as maturity and default premia, are constructed in an attempt to capture different components of business-conditions risk. The...

Using daily settlement prices for a range of real and financial futures over the period 6 April 1981-31 October 1995, this paper considers the extent to which, ex post, asset prices depart from random behaviour and investigates the efficiency of the markets within which the prices of the assets...

Using data from the stock markets of Japan, the UK and the US, this paper examines the time series properties of a price index derived from a zero net investment strategy of buying value stocks and short selling growth stocks. We use the results of this analysis to consider implications for the...