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In this paper we study simple time series models and assess their forecasting performance. In particular we calibrate ARMA and ARMAX (where the exogenous variable is the system load) processes. Models are tested on a time series of California power market system prices and loads from the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556334
In this paper we analyze the time series of daily mean prices generated in the Italian electricity market, which … seasonalities in the electricity prices. We use periodic models with GARCH disturbances and leptokurtic distribution and compare …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014059389
The spot price of electricity is highly skewed and heavy-tailed, as a result of the interaction of different variables … variables in an electricity market, reducing the limitations that normality and parametric density functions impose. The … likelihood criterion. The study case is the Colombian electricity market, where the SNP distribution outperforms the normal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868700
This paper is a continuation of our earlier studies on short-term price forecasting of California electricity prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790265
In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the Nord Pool electricity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215797
In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the Nord Pool electricity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005837153
Recent releases of X-13ARIMA-SEATS and JDemetra+ enable their users to choose between the non-parametric X-11 and the parametric ARIMA model-based approach to seasonal adjustment for any given time series without the necessity of switching between different software packages. To ease the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452778
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991156
The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has fostered in many countries the development of new weekly economic indices for the timely tracking of pandemic-related turmoils and other forms of rapid economic changes. Such indices often utilise information from daily and weekly economic time series that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015373330
The classical approach to long term load forecasting is often limited to the use of load and weather information occurring with monthly or annual frequency. This low resolution, infrequent data can sometimes lead to inaccurate forecasts. Load forecasters often have a hard time explaining the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165883