Under rational expectations and risk neutrality the linear projection of exchange rate change on the forward premium has a unit coefficient. However, empirical estimates of this coefficient are significantly less than one (and often negative). We investigate whether replacing rational...

This paper compares the "level" regression of the future spot rate on the current forward rate, which yields a slope coefficient close to unity, to the forward premium puzzle, i.e., a regression of the change in the spot exchange rate on the forward premium, which paradoxically yields a slope...

This paper explores from a new perspective the forward premium puzzle, i.e., why a regression of the change in the future spot exchange rate on the forward premium paradoxically yields a coefficient that is frequently negative. This traditional specification is compared theoretically and...

The Forward Premium Puzzle is one of the most prominent empirical anomalies in international finance. The forward premium predicts exchange rate depreciation but typically with the opposite sign and smaller magnitude than specified by rational expectations, a result also considered to indicate...

Chakraborty (2007) provides a model of adaptive learning applied to a simple monetary model of exchange rate under flexible prices to generate results similar to forward premium puzzle. This paper redifines the model and empirically examines key model assumptions of structural break in the...