Standard macroeconomic models suggest that the 'great ratios' of consumption to output and investment to output should be stationary. The joint behaviour of consumption, investment and output can then be used to measure trend output. We adopt this approach for the USA and UK, and find support...

The balanced growth theory and the neoclassical growth model predict that certain macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption, and investment grow at a constant rate. Analytically, it indicates that the consumption-output ratio and the investment-output ratio (termed "great ratios") must...

In the paper model of macroeconomic turnover and its possibilities for investments modelling are shown. The model consists from four blocks: in the first the theoretical model is described. In the second the model is reflected in accordance with the requirements of system dynamics method, there...

The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...

In the paper model of macroeconomic turnover and its possibilities for investments modelling are shown. The model consists from four blocks: in the first the theoretical model is described. In the second the model is reflected in accordance with the requirements of system dynamics method, there...

We identify a ‘risk news' shock in a vector autoregression (VAR), modifying Barsky and Sims’s procedure, while incorporating sign restrictions to simultaneously identify monetary policy, technology and demand shocks. The VAR-identifed risk news shock is estimated to account for around 2%-12%...

The purpose of this paper is to present an approach with regard to the dynamic process of the general equilibrium during the business cycle fluctuations following monetary and fiscal interventions, which, I think, could contribute to bridging the differences between the different schools of...

Ashley and Ye (2012) exemplifies the state-of-the-art in post-sample Granger causality analysis in a small-scale (bivariate) setting, albeit with a sufficiently large sample (T = 480 months) as to make post-sample testing feasible. In the present work we extend this work in two directions....

We identify a 'risk news' shock in a vector autoregression (VAR), modifying Barsky and Sims's procedure, while incorporating sign restrictions to simultaneously identify monetary policy, technology and demand shocks. The VAR-identifed risk news shock is estimated to account for around 2%-12% of...

When in proxy-SVARs the covariance matrix of VAR disturbances is subject to exogenous, permanent, nonrecurring breaks that generate target impulse response functions (IRFs) that change across volatility regimes, even strong, exogenous external instruments can result in inconsistent estimates of...