This paper puts forth a concept of Adptivety Rational Equilibrium (A.R.E) where agents base decisions upon predictions of future values of endogenous variables whose actual values are determined by equilibrium equations.

We have set out a general framework for adaptive belief systems in asset pricing thery. Fluctuations in prices and returns are driven by an evolutionary dynamics between traders with different expectations about prices.

This paper investigates the dynamics in the simple present discounted value asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs.

We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans. Households lend to firms and form expectations about their loan default probability. Under heterogeneous expectations, with switching between forecasting strategies driven by reinforcement learning, even a small fraction of...

This paper formalizes the idea that more hedging instruments may destabilize markets when traders have heterogeneous expectations and adapt their behavior according to performance-based reinforcement learning. In a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs the introduction of...

This paper discusses dynamic evolutionary multi-agent systems, as introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997). In particular the heterogeneous agent dynamic asset pricing model of Brock and Hommes (1998) is extended by introducing derivative securities by means of price contingent contracts. Numerical...

This paper develops the notion of a Large Type Limit (LTL) describing the average behavior of adaptive evolutionary systems with many trader types. It is shown that generic and persistent features of adaptive evolutionary systems with many trader types are well described by the large type limit....