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We develop a macroeconomic behavioral model in order to analyze the interactions between real and financial markets. The real subsystem is represented by a simple Keynesian income-expenditure model, while the financial subsystem is represented by an equilibrium stock market with heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010901425
The literature on multi-agent models up until recently has been mainly concerned with the price dynamics in a setting where agents are allowed to switch between a finite number of strategies.In reality, however, we would expect a high degree of heterogeneity, such that few belief types will...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345559
trader types are well described by the large type limit. Stability and bifurcation routes to instability and strange … RE fundamental benchmark and excess volatility. Simple examples of LTL are able to generate important stylized facts …, such as volatility clustering and long memory, observed in real financial data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345623
With the help of two examples, we illustrate the usefulness of agent-based models as a tool for economic policy design. In our first example, we apply a financial market model in which the order flow of speculators, relying on technical and fundamental analysis, generates intricate price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010310710
With the help of two examples, we illustrate the usefulness of agent-based models as a tool for economic policy design. In our first example, we apply a financial market model in which the order flow of speculators, relying on technical and fundamental analysis, generates intricate price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010954955
This paper verifies the endogenous mechanism and economic intuition on volatility clustering using the coexistence of … processes can endogenously generate volatility clustering and long range dependence in volatility observed in financial markets …. Economically, volatility clustering occurs when neither the fundamental nor trend following traders dominate the market and when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002924
-average forecast rules for a subset of agents can significantly magnify the volatility and persistence of house prices and household … used to dampen the resulting excess volatility, including a direct response to house price growth or credit growth in the … is the most effective tool for dampening overall excess volatility in the model economy. While an interest-rate response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007544
moments, we show that it can quantitatively account for the observed stock price volatility, the persistence of the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489917
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662516