The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a set of...

This paper assesses the validity of comparisons of the current financial crisis with past crises in the United States. We highlight aspects of two National Banking Era crises (the Panic of 1873 and the Panic of 1907) that are relevant for comparison with the Panic of 2008. In 1873,...

Since the mid 1980s, an extensive empirical literature has examined the relationship between U.S. fiscal deficits, exchange rates, and trade balances. The authors investigate two questions that continue to spark debate: do increased government deficits cause dollar appreciation, and do fiscal...

This paper assesses the validity of comparisons of the current financial crisis with past crises in the United States. We highlight aspects of two National Banking Era crises (the Panic of 1873 and the Panic of 1907) that are relevant for comparison with the Panic of 2008. In 1873,...