Existing methods of reconstructing historical Euro-zone data by aggregation of the individual countries' aggregate data raises numerous difficulties, especially due to past exchange rate changes. The approach proposed here is designed to avoid such distortions, and aggregate exactly when...

Econometric modeling of linear dynamic systems is considered in the light of new reasons for general to simple modeling of the joint data density. To offset the resulting modeling burden due to large numbers of variables, equations, and parameters, the authors consider PcFiml 8 as a modeling...

To reconcile forecast failure with building congruent empirical models, the authors analyze the sources of misprediction. This reveals that an ex ante forecast failure is purely a function of forecast-period events, not determinable from in-sample information. The primary causes are unmodeled...

Practical aspects of likelihood-based inference and forecasting of series with long memory are considered, based on the arfima(p; d; q) model with deterministic regressors. Sampling characteristics of approximate and exact first-order asymptotic methods are compared. The analysis is extended...

The asymptotic distributions of cointegration tests are approximated using the Gamma distribution. The tests considered are for the 1(1), the conditional 1(1), as well as the 1(2) model. Formulae for the parameters of the Gamma distributions are derived from response surfaces. The resulting...

An algorithm suggested by Hendry (1999) for estimation in a regression with more regressors than observations, is analyzed with the purpose of finding an estimator that is robust to outliers and structural breaks.  This estimator is an example of a one-step M-estimator based on Huber's skip...

Recent concern about the inadequacies of econometric models has led not only to the search for causes, but also to the proposal of constructive remedies for these difficulties. In this paper we analyse the links between econometric modelling methodologies and the performance of econometric...

Using general to simple methods, J. M. Boughton (1993) develops an econometric model that fits almost as well as Y. Baba, D. F. Hendry, and R. M. Starr (BHS) (1992) but differs in economic implications and dynamic adjustments. He claims the new model is constant, is not encompassed by BHS, but...