This paper takes a new look at the market-timing ability of the bond-equity yield ratio (BEYR). We compare the short-term profitability of a naive strategy based on the extreme values of the BEYR to the short-term profitability of a sophisticated strategy relying on regime switches. In contrast...

We analyze whether the liquidity provision in a pure order book market undergoes regime changes when volatility switches from a low state to a high state. In a five-month case study centered on the second Gulf war, we show that the contemporaneous relationship between liquidity and volatility is...

Using density forecasts, we compare the predictive performance of duration models that have been developed for modelling intra-day data on stock markets. Our model portfolio encompasses the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, its logarithmic version (Log-ACD), the threshold ACD...

We analyze whether the liquidity provision in a pure order book market during normal market conditions (low volatility regime) differs from what is observed when the market is under stress (high volatility regime). We show that the static relationship between liquidity and volatility is...

Recent contributions to microstructure theory hint at commonalities in the price-depth pairs which constitute the open limit order book. In this paper we provide empirical evidence that indeed a small number of latent factors, two for each side of the book, capture most of the variation in the...

Liquidity co-movements are studied within three different market capitalization indices, each made up of 100 NYSE stocks. Long-run liquidity co-movements are quantified in each class and compared to short-run liquidity co-movements. To condition the analysis of systematic liquidity upon index...

Using a detailed sample made up of more than 20,000 investment rounds, we analyze the time to 'IPO', 'trade sale' and 'liquidation' for about 6,000 venture backed firms. We model these exit times using competing risks models. Biotech and internet firms have the fastest IPO exits. Internet firms...

The predictability of stock returns in ten countries is assessed taking into account recently developed out-of-sample statistical tests and risk-adjusted metrics. Predictive variables include both valuation ratios and interest rate variables. Out-of-sample predictive power is found to be...

This paper assesses the possible contemporaneous relationship between stock index prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries and over a time period that spans several decades. In a cointegration framework, our analysis looks at three hypotheses. First,...