That the U.S. trade account will improve in response to a depreciation is not generally in doubt; the key questions are by how much and by when. Addressing these questions involves studying the distribution of trade-account responses to a depreciation. Given a depreciation of the dollar, the...

This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and...

Yock Y. Chong and David F. Hendry (1986) propose the concept of forecast encompassing--the lack of additional information in another model's forecasts. The corresponding test statistic is based on the regression of one model's forecast errors on the other model's forecasts. This paper...

Income and price elasticities for non-oil exports of non-OPEC developing countries play an imp ortant role in the development of policy responses to the debt crisis. These elasticities are estimated for the major Standard Internation al Trade Classification commodity groups. Based on two-stage...

That international trade flows respond to changes in real exchange rates is beyond question. What is less clear is whether the measurement of real exchange rates matters for characterizing and predicting such responses. To identify the implications of choosing a given measure of the real...

This paper examines the empirical relation between market structure and life expectancy for cartels that were active in international commodity markets throughout this century. I consider two alternative empirical formulations and estimate their parameters recognizing that durability cannot take...

Though China's share of world trade is comparable to that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available suffer from two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries....

The most widely accepted explanation for the inverse association between private investments and current accounts [Glick and Rogoff, 1995] rests on data for manufactures through 1990. Is this consensus robust to revisions to the national accounts and the expansion of information technologies...