We focus on capturing the increasingly important role that emerging economies play in determining U.S. import prices. Emerging market producers differ from others in two respects: (1) their cost structure is well below that of developed-market producers, and (2) their wide profit margins induce...

This paper evaluates the distributional properties of forecasts from six econometric models of the U.S. trade account. Using stochastic (Monte Carlo) simulation, we derive confidence intervals and forecast-based test statistics which account for uncertainty from future disturbances and from...

This paper quantifies roughly some potential economic developments in the former Soviet Union (FSU), if substantive economic reforms go forward, and assesses the likely implications of these developments for the rest of the world. It is assumed that a move to world prices for energy and other...

We focus on capturing the increasingly important role that emerging economies play in determining US import prices. Emerging-market producers differ from others in two respects: (1) their cost structure is well below that of developed-market producers, and (2) their wide profit margins induce...

Existing estimates of the income elasticity suggest that, in the absence of price increases, US imports will eventually exceed US income. That the United States will change from being a largely self-sufficient economy to one that cannot cover its imports has received a great deal of attention in...