We present a simple dynamical model of stock index returns which is grounded on the ability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning (CAPE) valuation ratio devised by Robert Shiller to predict long-horizon performances of the market. More precisely, we discuss a discrete time dynamics in which...

We develop a nonlinear dynamic Cournot duopoly model in discrete time, where two bounded rational quantity-setting firms, both endowed with naïve expectations, are heterogeneous as to their cost functions and output strategies. One of the two competing firms adopts best-reply behaviour, whereas...

In this paper a two-sector dynamic model of business fluctuations is presented. It is a disequilibrium dynamic model with two laws of evolution (dynamic laws) built into it: prices of commodities change according to the market disequilibrium of supply and demand, while quantities change...

We propose a simple model where large innovation waves arise from the endogenous propagation of information around sectors. Innovators of each sector invest in internal R&D and in local search for information. We show that depending on the structural parameters of the single sectors, some of the...