The value of the timing option implicit in CBOT corn futures contract is estimated. Separate estimates are obtained for the option without and with convenience yield. The effect of the option on basis behavior at day one of the maturity month is examined and is found to be statistically important.

Numerous models of price-demand-supply behavior in agricultural markets have been proposed and estimated. The literature contains valuable contributions, but the cumulative effect is somewhat disappointing. This paper appraises the status of the price analysis literature and makes suggestions...

It is possible to obtain robust estimates of structural parameters using observational data, but it is difficult to do so. Necessary, but not sufficient, conditions are to adopt a modeling philosophy and to undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the results. Using a general-to-specific modeling...

The relationship between complete-feed prices and ingredient prices are estimated to analyze the effect of higher commodity prices on feed costs, with particular attention to the substitutability of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS). Using an historical positive price correlation...

A rational expectations storage model is used to simulate monthly corn prices, which are used to evaluate marketing strategies to manage price risk. The data are generated and analyzed in two formats: for long-run outcomes over 10,000 “years” of monthly prices and for 10,000 cases of 40-year...

A structural model is developed to simulate the probability distributions of corn prices by month. The intent is to determine the relationship between model specifications, based on a rational expectations competitive storage framework, and the probability distributions of monthly prices....