Many indicators are helpful in improving statistical performance for forecasting and policy analysis. We do believe, however, no single indicator (or type of indicator) can do the necessary work by itself. Any new finding is likely to make a better contribution in combination with others that...

This paper explores the issue of constructing an economic predictive model of financial vulnerability through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches. The methodology entails estimating a Markov regime switching model of exchange rate movements,...