Because the Federal Reserve is responsible for controlling the value of money, economic policymakers are very concerned with forecasting the public's demand for money. Inflation is one of several factors that have made forecasting the demand for money increasingly difficult over the past fifteen...

The U.S. Department of Commerce composite index of leading indicators (CLI) is a widely cited and influential economic series. In this article, Evan F. Koenig and Kenneth M. Emery examine how well movements in the CLI predict business-cycle turning points. Using data that actually would have...