This paper explores the issue of constructing an economic predictive model of financial vulnerability through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches. The methodology entails estimating a Markov regime switching model of exchange rate movements,...

We propose and evaluate explicit tests of the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing forecasts. In contrast to previously developed tests, a wide variety of accuracy measures can be used (in particular, the loss function need not be quadratic and need not even be...

Many econometric models for forecasting and policy analysis consist of a statistically estimated system of nonlinear stochastic equations. The distinguishing feature of these models is the nonlinearity of the solution for the endogenous variables in terms of model disturbances. Despite the...

A simulation-based non-linear filter is developed for prediction and smoothing in non-linear and/or non-normal structural time-series models. Recursive algorithms of weighting functions are derived by applying Monte Carlo integration. Through Monte Carlo experiments, it is shown that (1) for a...