Germany''s export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for...

The knowledge production function is central to R&D-based growth models. This paper empirically investigates the knowledge production function and intertemporal spillover effects using cointegration techniques. Time-series evidence suggests there are two long-run cointegrating relationships. The...

This paper investigates the impact of public capital on private sector output by testing and estimating an aggregate production function for the U.S. economy over the postwar period augmented to include the stock of public capital as an additional factor input. We use patent applications to...

Germany's export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for...

Germany’s export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for...

For short forecast horizons, we find statistical evidence that the oil price volatility observed ex post explains ex-ante disagreement between oil price forecasters of the ECB’s professional survey. Since the forecasts considered are quarterly average prices, the observed disagreement is...

Using the Carlson and Parkin (1975) framework and employing the Pesaran–Timmermann (1992) Predictive Failure statistic, we evaluate several consensus forecast series from CESIfo's World Economic Survey. Several issues are examined related to interpreting qualitative survey responses. We define...

The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are...