This paper formally incorporates parameter uncertainty and model error into the estimation of contingent claim models and the formulation of forecasts. This allows inference on functions of interest (option values, bias functions, hedge ratios) consistent with uncertainty in both parameters and...

We investigate the common practice of estimating the dependence structure between credit default swap prices on multi‐name credit instruments from the dependence structure of the equity returns of the underlying firms. We find convincing evidence that the practice is inappropriate for...