This paper studies estimation of panel co-integration models with cross-sectional dependence Generated by unobserved global stochastic trends. The standard least squares estimator is, in General, inconsistent owing to the spuriousness induced by the unobservable i(1) trends. We propose two...

Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural...

We consider issues related to the order of an autoregression selected using information criteria. We study the sensitivity of the estimated order to (i) whether the effective number of observations is held fixed when estimating models of different order, (ii) whether the estimate of the variance...

We investigate familial relationships in consumption patterns using a sample of parents and their children from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find a positive and statistically significant parent-specific effect on children's consumption even after controlling for the effect of parental...

Skewness is a prevalent feature of macroeconomic time series and may arise exogenously because shocks are asymmetrically distributed, or endogenously, as shocks propagate through production networks. Previous theoretical work often studies these two possibilities in isolation. We nest all...

This paper explores the dynamics of voting over mandatory education when parents allocate children's time between school and labor. When poverty keeps a sufficiently high number of children at work rather than in school, the availability of forms of child labor that provide skill-enhancimg...