A random pivot model is used to expand the theory of policy-minded candidates. Previous results are derived under weaker assumptions. New results about candidate strategies in multiple elections are also obtained. The thrust of these results supports R. Calvert's (1985) finding that...

This paper presents a multicandidate spatial model of probabilistic voting in which voter utility functions contain a random element specific to each candidate. The model assumes no abstentions, sincere voting, and the maximization of expected vote by each candidate. The authors derive a...

The authors build a model of two-candidate elections in which voters judge candidates on the basis of how well their announced campaign positions correspond with their records. Given different records, the candidates will adopt different campaign positions. Two types of reputational advantage...

Detecting nonlinearity in financial time series is a key point when the main interest is to understand the generating process. One of the main tests for testing linearity in time series is the Hinich Bispectrum Nonlinearity Test (HINBIN). Although this test has been succesfully applied to a vast...

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The...

Canada is one nation, but it is in many ways two communities, one Francophone and the other Anglophone. The authors employ a formal model of 'ideology' and analyze how nationality is constructed in people's minds. The magnitude of the changes in expressed 'preferences' in terms of ideology...