The paper shows that the set of stable probability measures and the set of Rational Beliefs relative to a given stationary measure are closed in the strong topology but not closed in the topology of weak convergence. However, subsets of the set of stable probability measures which are...

The starting point for rational beliefs models is the existence of an empirical distribution for the stochastic process of observed exogenous and endogenous variables. Since the true, unknown stochastic process that generates this observed empirical distribution is only weakly asymptotic mean...

We study the loan contracing problem of Gale and Hellwig (1985) under general assumptions of risk aversion and possibly diverse subjective beliefs of the borrower and lender about the income of the investment. We characterize the optimal contract and show that (i) the contractual payoff in...

Rational beliefs (in the form of WAMS measures) are expectations which though consistent with empirical observations, may deviate from the true underlying probability measure under which data is generated.We provide results on, as well as a decomposition of, WAMS measures and use this to...

We generalize the characterization of the loan contract due to Gale and Hellwig (1985) to the case of risk aversion of the borrower and diverse subjective beliefs about the outcome of the investment. We continue to assume costly state verification (Townsend, 1979) i.e. that the lender must incur...

Two of the features that distinguish Social Security and many other state mandated pension plans around the world are that (i) a minimum level of savings for retirement is imposed on most citizens and (ii) individuals cannot decide how their contributions are invested. Here, a rationale for...

Rational beliefs (in the form of WAMS measures) are expectations which though consistent with empirical observations, may deviate from the true underlying probability measure under which data is generated.We provide results on, as well as a decomposition of, WAMS measures and use this to...

One way to interpret the current policies of many central banks is that they seek to stabilize economic activity. One possible justification for such a policy is that there is volatility in macro variables that individual agents cannot insure against. We study the simplest possible extension of...

Is an assumption of bounded rationality needed to explain Social Security and other mandatory pension plans? In this contribution we argue that when rational agents hold inconsistent expectations such programs may be justified. Two of the features that distinguish Social Security and many other...