We formulate a general theory of decision making based on a lattice of observable events, and we exhibit a large class of representations called the general model. Some of the representations are equivalent to the so called standard model in which observable events are modelled by an algebra of...

Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis give conflicting results, regardless of whether income growth is accommodated in the estimates. This paper shows theoretically and empirically that standard methods of testing the Fisher hypothesis give biased results and that the bias depends on the...

A new method for static hedging of barrier options under general asset dynamics is introduced. The method unifies previous approaches and nests their extensions. Using a finite set of hedge instruments the method is directly implementable and it is shown how to operationalize the hedge in a...

Bayesian learning provides the core concept of processing noisy information. In standard Bayesian frameworks, assessing the price impact of information requires perfect knowledge of news’ precision. In practice, however, precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian...

The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions,...

In parimutuel betting markets, it has been observed that proportionally too many bets are placed on longshots, late bets are more informative than early bets, and a sizeable fraction of bets are placed early. We propose an explanation for these facts based on equilibrium incentives of privately...

We formulate a new theory of expected utility under uncertainty based on the notion of an event-lattice, which is a natural generalization of a Savage state space. The modelling of uncertainty is based on the idea that the decision maker for each group of related decisions to be taken creates a...

We formulate a portfolio optimization problem as a game where the investor chooses a portfolio and his opponent, the market, chooses some market crashes. The asymmetry of the opponents' decision processes leads to a new and delicate generalization of the classical Hamilton-Jacob-Bellman equation...

Relationships between the Federal funds rate, unemployment, inflation, and the long-term government-bond rate are investigated with cointegration techniques. We find a stable long-term relationship between the Federal funds rate, unemployment, and the bond rate. This relationship is...

This study explores the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations under the current float. Using a cointegration model of the real exchange rate, the innovations are decomposed into transitory and common-trend components. Both transitory and common-trend innovations are found to explain an...