The strategic implications of ties in extensive form games of perfect information are discussed, and a refinement of subgame-perfect equilibrium suggested. The idea is that threats and promises have to be credible in order to be part of an equilibrium strategy, as usual, but further that, if...

It is argued that even in games of perfect information there can be unattractive subgame perfect equilibria. This is so when anticipation of threats is taken as the starting point, rather than the threats themselves. Furthermore, there exist equilibria which are not quite subgame perfect...

The framework presented in this paper takes its cue from recent financial events and attempts to develop a tractable framework for policy analysis of macro-linkages, in particular a first attempt at the integration of an independent profit-maximising banking sector that lends to and borrows from...

In the present paper stationary pure-exchange overlapping generations economies with l goods per date and m consumers per generation are considered. It is shown that for an open and dense set of utility functions there exist endowment vectors such that n-cycles exist for n ≤ l +1 and l ≤ m....

This paper investigates how social composition affects social conflict and economic development when property rights are unenforceable. Groups follow Markovian strategies for consumption and investment and may also spend effort in an resource appropriation contest. It is shown that conflict...

Institutions that rely on joint liability to facilitate lending to the poor have a long history and are now a common feature of many developing countries. Economists have proposed several theories of joint liability lending that stress various aspects of its informational and enforcement...

This paper develops a procedure for testing hypotheses on the full set of cointegration parameters of the I(2) model. The proposed test is applied to the analysis of small-country import price determination extending the standard empirical framework to allow for variables integrated of order...

There is increasing controversy regarding the basic characteristics of British industrialization. This paper takes a fresh look at total factor productivity growth in agriculture and industry, suggests a new method in estimating it adopting a probability approach, and presents some new results....

The partial adjustment model for cigarette demand in Tansel (1993) is formulated as a restriction on the more general VAR model. The question whether the Tansel estimation results are spurious as claimed by Cameron and Collins (1998) is addressed in this framework. The role of intervention...

An important claim of Bayesian learning and a standard assumption in price discovery models is that the strength of the price impact of unanticipated information depends on the precision of the news. In this paper, we test for this assumption by analyzing intra-day price responses of CBOT T-bond...