Showing 1 - 10 of 54,941
processing rate. Although a decline of policy activism directly increases output volatility, it indirectly anchors expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593745
This note evaluates how adaptive learning agents weigh different pieces of information when forming expectations with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012624298
This paper evaluates how the way agents weight information when forming expectations can affect the econometric … lead to substantial biases to estimates of expectations relevance for inflation, and (ii) that these biases can spill over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012624310
This paper analyzes how the formation of expectations constrains monetary and fiscal policy design. Economic agents … the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty substantially narrows, relative to a rational expectations … analysis of the model, the menu of policies consistent with expectations stabilization. When agents are learning about the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283550
This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in the policymaker's preferences for price vs. output stability, the learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005196104
roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
This paper investigates the relationship between demographics and the current account. We analyze the impact of recent demographic changes and provide a forecast of its future impact. Overall, we find a strong and robust, non-linear demographic effect. In particular, we find a positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012435239
Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the tendency for countercyclical fluctuations in the trade balance stressed by both the academic literature and policymakers. However, we do not find that improved growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134287
Does an improvement in growth prospects lead to a fall in the trade balance? The relevance of this question stems from the tendency for countercyclical fluctuations in the trade balance stressed by both the academic literature and policymakers. However, we do not find that improved growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160788
Economists tend to assume that agents maximize their expected utility. However, many different experiments have questioned expected utility maximization by showing that human behavior can be characterized as random. This paper proposes Thompson Sampling as a theory of human behavior across very...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012099162