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Based on a simple theoretical exchange rate model, this paper shows how persistent balance of payments surpluses build up appreciation pressure on a fixed exchange regime in a partially-open economy such as China. A deregulated market interest rate may work as an automatic stabilizer to release...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005435861
There is a broad consensus that the quality of the political system and its institutionsare fundamental for a country’s prosperity. The paper focuses on political events inItaly over the past 35 years and asks whether the adoption of the euro in 1999 hashelped insulate Italy’s financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866519
Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005867584
The global economy has witnessed significant transformations in recent decades, marked by the emergence of new economic powers and the evolution of financial systems. Within this context, the globalization of currencies has become a crucial aspect of international economic dynamics. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213345
The purpose of this study is to examine the potential linkages among ASEAN-5 currencies, in particular the possibility of Singapore dollar bloc during the pre- and post crisis periods by using Johansen multivariate cointegration test and Granger causality test. Significant non-stationarity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213714
The main thesis in this manuscript is that a social choice theory based on aggregating individual preferences and values is insufficient to confront the social choices that today’s world is facing. It is defended in here that institutions play a critical role in any social choice, and that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214328
These are the narrative individual country histories of exchange rate arrangements, 1946-2001 that underpin "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation". The chronologies allow us to date dual or multiple exchange rate episodes, as well as to differentiate between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215511
This is the chartbook of individual country exchange rate histories and their experience with parallel markets, 1946-2001 that accompanies "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation." We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215512
Este trabajo presenta un análisis teórico y empirico de las politicas dirigidas a alcanzar un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real. Un modelo de optimización intertemporal sugiere que, en ausencia de cambios en la politica fiscal, un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215702
We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market-determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries. Our approach differs from the IMF...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015216069