Using stochastic simulations, this article analyses the probability distribution of a country's deficit ratio under fixed exchange rates and a variety of monetary and fiscal policy rules. The purpose is to show how the probability of an 'excessive deficit', defined by Europe's Stability Pact as...

Most benefits of the European Community (EC-92) program will probably not come from marginal changes in trade flows. Those changes are important to European policymakers, but are of remote interest to developing countries. The main threats to developing countries are the diversion of investment...

Developing a new and highly innovative theory of economic policy, this book deals with conflicts between strategic actions by public and private agents. It builds on the Lucas critique but also applies the tools introduced by Tinbergen and Theil to dynamic policy games and from there derives a...