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Mayraz, Guy - Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics - 2013

This paper presents a model and an experiment, both suggesting that wishful thinking is a pervasive phenomenon that aect decisions large and small. Agents in the model start out with state-dependent payos, and behave as if high-payo states are more likely. Subsequent choices maximize...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903414

The Effects of Beliefs versus Risk Preferences on Bargaining Outcomes

Dickinson, David L. - Department of Economics, Appalachian State University - 2005

-neutrality and pessimism (optimism). This paper reports data from a controlled bargaining experiment where risk preferences and … optimism dominate those of risk-aversion. Optimistic bargainers are significantly more likely to dispute and have aggressive … increased settlement rates are more likely achieved by minimizing impasse uncertainty (to limit the potential for optimism …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005093971

Do bad risks know it? Experimental evidence on optimism and adverse selection

Coelho, Marta; de Meza, David - In: Economics Letters 114 (2012) 2, pp. 168-171

against failing in the task and also less inclined to buy travel insurance. This suggests intrinsic optimism influences …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010572143

Groupthink: Collective delusions in organizations and markets

Bénabou, Roland - 2013

This paper investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293122

Groupthink: Collective Delusions in Organizations and Markets

Benabou, Roland - Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010704406

Twisting the truth: Foundations of wishful thinking

Kovach, Matthew - In: Theoretical Economics 15 (2020) 3, pp. 989-1022

induces such optimism. I introduce a behavioral axiom formalizing WT and derive a representation in which the agent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013188993

Twisting the truth : foundations of wishful thinking

Kovach, Matthew - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 15 (2020) 3, pp. 989-1022

induces such optimism. I introduce a behavioral axiom formalizing WT and derive a representation in which the agent …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012308717

Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions - An Experimental Approach -

Fellner, Gerlinde; Güth, Werner; Maciejovsky, Boris - Max-Planck-Institut für Ökonomik, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft - 2001

Overall, 72 subjects invest their endowment in four risky assets. Each combination of assets yields the same expected return and variance of returns. Illusion of expertise prevails when one prefers nevertheless the self-selected portfolio. After being randomly assigned to groups of four subjects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765210

Illusion of expertise in portfolio decisions : an experimental approach

Fellner, Gerlinde; Güth, Werner; Maciejovsky, Boris - 2001

Overall, 72 subjects invest their endowment in four risky assets. Each com-bination of assets yields the same expected return and variance of returns. Illusion of expertise prevails when one prefers nevertheless the self-selected portfolio. After being randomly assigned to groups of four...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408429

Biases in Belief Reports

Bauer, Dominik; Wolff, Irenaeus - 2021

Belief elicitation is important in many different fields of economic research. We show that how a researcher elicits such beliefs-in particular, whether the belief is about the participant's opponent, an unrelated other, or the population of others-affects the processes involved in the formation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012623204