Factorial moments are convenient tools in nuclear physics to characterize the multiplicity distributions when phase-space resolution (Delta) becomes small. For uncorrelated particle production within Delta, Gaussian statistics holds and factorial moments Fq are equal to unity for all orders q....

For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series...

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates is tested using monthly Eurodollar deposit rates for maturities 1, 3 and 6 months covering the period 1983:1 -1996:6.Whereas classical regression-based tests indicate rejection, tests based on a new model allowing for potential...

This paper analyses different operational central bank policies and their impact on the behaviour of the money market interest rate. The model combines profit maximising behaviour by commercial banks with the central bank supplying the liquidity that keeps the market rate on target. It seems...

How do financial markets price new information? This paper analyzes price setting at the intersection of private and public information, by testing whether and how the reaction of financial markets to public signals depends on the relative importance of private information in agents’...

The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this...

Hidden Markov models is an extension of mixture models providing a flexible class of models exhibiting dependence and a possibly large degree of variability. In this paper the authors show how jump Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques can be used to estimate the parameters as well as the number...

Gibbs sampling has had great success in the analysis of mixture models. In particular, the "latent varaible" formulation of the mixture model greatly reduces computational complexity. However, one failing of this approach is the possible existence of almost-absorbing states, called trapping...

In this paper we construct early-warning trading indicators for bonds and test their behavior over the past 50 years across a range of bond maturities and credit risk. The indicators are tested in periods ranging from 1962 through the summer of 2015 using bond mutual funds and ETFs, as well as...