We examine out of sample predictive power of real time monetary models with nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the Pound Sterling/US Dollar exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant. By studying recursive out of sample forecast...

Theoretically, the risk premium captured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond yield spreads should be equal. However, data reveals a significant difference between the two spreads. We explore the presence of a mean-reverting behavior in this difference (CDS-bond basis), for selected emerging...

[TR] Ulke kredi riskinin alternatif gostergeleri olan kredi temerrut takasi (CDS) orani ve EMBI+ulke farki degerlerinin teoride arbitraj imkanina yer vermeyecek sekilde esit olmasi beklense de; iki veri donemsel olarak oldukca farkli hareketler gosterebilmektedir. Bu not, soz konusu farkin...

We provide a detailed classification of core and non-core liabilities for the Turkish banking system à la Shin and Shin (2010). We further carry out a two-stage liquidity stress test similar to Van Den End (2010) where we simulate inflow and outflow factors as well as the network topology of...

We explore the asymmetric behaviour of inflation around the target level for inflation-targeting emerging markets. The first rationale behind this asymmetry is the asymmetric policy response of the central bank around the target. Central banks could have a stronger bias towards overshooting...

In this paper, we produce short term forecasts for the inflation in Turkey, using a large number of econometric models. In particular, we employ univariate models, decomposition based approaches (both in frequency and time domain), a Phillips curve motivated time varying parameter model, a suite...

Stationarity of the current account is suggested as an indicator of the current account sustainability in the literature. We explore the presence of mean-reverting behaviour in current accounts of 24 European countries, using linear and nonlinear unit root tests. Our results suggest mean...

Mean-reversion in unprocessed food prices and beef prices towards the long-run trend is examined for twenty-two European countries, using linear and nonlinear unit root tests. As the argument goes, food prices might display short-term deviations from their long-run values due to disturbances...

We discuss the role of foreign exchange reserves as precautionary savings under an imperfect market framework due to the presence of endogenously determined borrowing constraints. We show that cost of holding reserves is higher in borrowing constrained economies than unconstrained ones as a...

We perform a statistical analysis to examine the international reserve accumulation of four selected emerging market countries : Argentina, Brazil, Korea and Turkey. We perform Granger causality tests to investigate the information value of key macroeconomic variables on foreign exchange...