We study the prospective operation of the Stability Pact by stochastic simulation. Using a forward-looking multi-country macroeconometric model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies, the Pact's provisions are formalized in detail, and alternative monetary and fiscal...

The authors argue that equilibrium unemployment has varied in the UK over the last twenty years, and that time series econometric methods have not always been suited to uncovering its evolution. Recent changes in the UK labour market seem to have had a significant impact on equilibrium...

In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconomic model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies.