We introduce the price probability measure η(p;t) that defines the mean price p(1;t), mean square price p(2;t), price volatility σp2(t) and all price n-th statistical moments p(n;t) as ratio of sums of n-th degree values C(n;t) and volumes U(n;t) of market trades aggregated during certain time...

In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...

This paper demonstrates how sequential fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF in short) test can be implemented in EViews. We first briefly introduce how to use the fracdiff an EViews add-in to compute the fractional difference of the Nile data. Next, we give the program that executes the sequential FDF...

The study of the link between debt and growth has been full of debates, both in theory and empirics. However, there is a growing consensus that the relationship is sensitive to the level of debt. Our paper tries to address the question of non linearity in the long term relationship between...

This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gambler’s ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the risk neutral probabilities associated an adjustment to...

This review article introduces and evaluates various ways to aggregate probabilistic opinions of different individuals. For each of these three ways, an axiomatic characterization result is presented (a new one in the case of multiplicative pooling). The three ways satisfy different axioms and...

This paper considers the impact of using the regularisation techniques for the analysis of the extended skew-normal distribution. The approach is estimated using a number of techniques and compared to OLS based LASSO and ridge regressions in addition to non- constrained skew-normal regression.

This paper considers the impact of using the regularisation techniques for the analysis of the extended skew-normal distribution. The approach is estimated using a number of techniques and compared to OLS based LASSO and ridge regressions in addition to non- constrained skew-normal regression.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among variables that explain money demand in Canada during the period 1983–2011. To this end, I set up a vector-error correction model with an appropriate lag order and test for cointegration by means of...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among variables that explain money demand in Canada during the period 1983–2011. To this end, I set up a vector-error correction model with an appropriate lag order and test for cointegration by means of...