Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's non-structural model. Merton's structural model has the benefit of being responsive, since the probabilities of default can continually be updated with the evolution of firms' asset...

This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding...

Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that...

This study on overinvestment differs from the existing literature in that investment in machinery and equipment is modelled as a structural vector autoregression with identification achieved by imposing long-run restrictions, as in Blanchard and Quah (1989). The transitory components obtained...

The authors use the efficient hedging methodology for optimal pricing and hedging of equitylinked life insurance contracts whose payoff depends on the performance of several risky assets. In particular, they consider a policy that pays the maximum of the values of <em>n</em> risky assets at some maturity...

This paper assesses the expectations theory for the longer end of the term structure of Canadian interest rates using three empirical approaches that have received attention in the literature: (i) cointegration tests of the long-run unbiasedness hypothesis; (ii) simulations of a theoretical...

The authors introduce new measures of important underlying macroeconomic phenomena that affect the financial side of the economy. These measures are calculated using the time-series factor analysis (TSFA) methodology introduced in Gilbert and Meijer (2005). The measures appear to be both more...

This paper examines the determinants of currency crises in Latin America, Asia and Africa. It asks two basic questions: (a) Are currency crises linked to economic fundamentals? and; (b) Is there any evidence of a contagion effect after controlling for the potential effects of economic...

Inflation equals the product of two terms: an extensive margin (the fraction of items with price changes) and an intensive margin (the average size of those changes). The variance of inflation over time can be decomposed into contributions from each margin. The extensive margin figures...

The authors propose a monetary policy rule for the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), the Bank of Canada's new projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. They consider simple instrument rules such as Taylor-type and inflation-forecast-based rules. The proposed rule...