Inspired by findings of lowdimensional nonlinearities and the Theorem of Takens (1983) forecasting models of financial time series are often built upon nonparametric, i.e. universal nonlinear, univariate relationships. Empirical investigations, however, are seriously contaminated by the problem...

This paper proposes a Kolmogorov-type test for the shortfall order (also known in the literature as the right-spread or excess-wealth order) against parametric alternatives. In the case of the null hypothesis corresponding to the Negative Exponential distribution, this provides a test for the...

This paper examines how the evidence of stock market predictability affects optimal portfolio choice for buy-and-hold and dynamic investors with different planning horizons. As in Barberis (2000), particular attention is paid to estimation risk, i.e., uncertainty about the true values of the...

This paper uses statistical model selection criteria and Avramovs (2002) Bayesian model averaging approach to analyze the sample evidence on stock market predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. Based on Swiss stock market data, our posterior analysis finds that neither the...

Assuming the existence of Hegel‟s consistent overall picture of the concept of entropy, the author transfers the physical term of entropy into economics and sociology and illuminates the relevance of second law of thermodynamics within both disciplines. Basis of translation is the present...

The rapidly growing literature on the relationship between energy consumption and economicgrowth has not univocally identi…ed the ‘real’causal relationship yet. We argue that bivariate mod-els, which analyze the causality at the level of the total economy, are not appropriate — especiallyin...

Inter-rm competition has received much attention in the theoreticalliterature, but recent empirical work suggests that the growth rates of ri-val rms are uncorrelated, and that rm growth can be taken as an essen-tially independent process. We begin by investigating the correlations of thegrowth...