Large swings in stock prices are sometimes associated with a redirection of household savings flows. Such changes can lead to transitory increases in M2 as investors temporarily “park” funds in depository assets while they determine the funds’ ultimate destination. The authors find that,...

An examination of the small-sample properties of nonparametric changepoint tests using Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the probabilities of false-positive tests under alternative assumptions about the time-series properties of the underlying process. ; An analysis of whether depositor...

In February 1994, the FOMC began a new era in transparency, gradually building a communications apparatus that conveys information about the Committee’s decisions and expectations. Has the new apparatus improved the public’s ability to predict FOMC interest rate decisions? New research based...

This paper demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC...