This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict...

Consider an economy in which the underlying security returns follow a linear factor model with constant coeffcients. While portfolios that invest in these securities willin general, have a linear factor structure, it will be one with time-varying coeffcients. However, under certain assumptions...

This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that is shown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability to produce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is used to forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLS model it has been difficult to consistently predict...

This article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamic mutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyze whether managers with market-timing ability can be identified ex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary least squares (OLS) timing models produce false...

Using the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) as an exogenous shock that reduces the tax advantages of offshore funds sold to U.S. investors, we document that affected funds significantly enhance their performance as a response. This effect is stronger for funds domiciled in tax havens...

We examine whether information manipulation by firms may reflect fundamental cooperation conventions induced by social norms in China. Consistent with this notion, we find that China’s leading social norms related to alcohol consumption and social drinking enhance earnings manipulation. An...