Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance...

How does bankruptcy affect the dynamics of aggregate consumption? We quantify the trade-off between the insurance and creditworthiness effects of bankruptcy in response to tighter credit. We show that bankruptcy dampens the effect of tighter credit on aggregate consumption on impact because it...

This paper studies the distributional implications of intermediation costs. We built a "Bewley" model economy where individuals experience uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks on labor productivity and financial intermediation is costly. Individuals smooth consumption by making deposits to a...