Focuses on a computerized sales forecasting system for the control of automotive spare parts. Outlines the logic of the forecasting method, a refinement of exponential smoothing, together with a method for monitoring forecast errors. Describes experiences in developing, implementing and...

We provide a new approach to automatic business forecasting based on an extended range of exponential smoothing methods. Each method in our taxonomy of exponential smoothing methods can be shown to be equivalent to the forecasts obtained from a state space model. This allows (1) the easy...

Exponential smoothing, often used for sales forecasting in inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains the appropriate approach under more general...

The problem considered in this paper is how to find reliable prediction intervals with simple exponential smoothing and trend corrected exponential smoothing. Methods for constructing prediction intervals based on linear approximation and bootstrapping are proposed.