This paper uses a gravity model to forecast the potential impact on trade balances and trade patterns of the 2004 EU enlargement. The results suggest that gross trade creation for the accession economies is about 25 per cent of their 2003 trade. Although membership of the EU creates trade it...

This paper develops a model of a representative transition economy to explain the stylised facts of output declines and real exchange rate appreciation in the early stages of transformation. These facts can be explained by supply-side shocks, interest rate liberalisation or a reduction in core...

This book, based upon a large-scale research project, examines alternative types of exchange rate policies being pursued and the changing nature of exchange rate policy during the transition process in four countries, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Poland and the Czech Republic. The book brings together a...

This paper develops a model of a representative transition economy to explain the stylised facts of output declines and real exchange rate appreciation in the early stages of transformation. These facts can be explained by supply-side shocks, interest rate liberalisation or a reduction in core...