The estimation of P(S-n u) by simulation, where S, is the sum of independent. identically distributed random varibles Y-1,..., Y-n, is of importance in many applications. We propose two simulation estimators based upon the identity P(S-n u) = nP(S, u, M-n = Y-n), where M-n = max(Y-1,...,...

The financial crisis of 2007 – 2009 began with a major failure in credit markets. The causes of this failure stretch far beyond inadequate mathematical modeling (see Donnelly and Embrechts [2010] and Brigo et al. [2009] for detailed discussions from a mathematical finance perspective)....

We consider the problem of accurately measuring the credit risk of a portfolio consisting of loans, bonds and other financial assets. One particular performance measure of interest is the probability of large portfolio losses over a fixed time horizon. We revisit the so-called t-copula that...