We use machine learning to construct a statistically optimal and unbiased benchmark for firms' earnings expectations. We show that analyst expectations are on average biased upwards, and that this bias exhibits substantial time-series and cross-sectional variation. On average, the bias increases...

We study the SABR stochastic volatility model with the volatility-of-volatility parameter ν . We provide a method to expand the price C_SABR(S, K, ν, σ, τ ) of a European call in this model as a Taylor series in ν , C_SABR(S, K, ν, σ, τ ) = C_BS(S,K, σ, τ ) ν C₁ ν²C₂ . . . ν^kC_k O(ν<sup>k...

We use machine learning to construct a statistically optimal and unbiased benchmark for firms' earnings expectations. We show that analyst expectations are on average biased upwards, and that this bias exhibits substantial time-series and cross-sectional variation. On average, the bias increases...