This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The first one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error...

We show that persistence of conditional volatility in large samples could be exaggerated by the existence of structural breaks in the ARCH and GARCH parameters. Our results suggest that extreme persistence frequently observed in index volatility does not necessarily indicate the same level of...

The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of different strategies to predict the evolution of credit at Brazilian economy. Time series techniques are used to evaluate the performance of macroeconomic indicators in forecasting out-of-sample behavior of the aggregated and...

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. An econometrics model is estimated and is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error Correction...

In order to provide greater transparency in their opinions and decisions, central banks around the world use both their official channels and the specialized media to communicate with the general public. Using an unique news dataset with intraday frequency, this paper finds evidence that the...

The financial market presents non-linearities for the behavior of stock returns for periods of high and low market. This article studies portfolios whose variance-covariance matrices are estimates using a multivariate model with regime change. Investment strategies for portfolios are presented...

Markowitz optimization, a key component of modern portfolio theory, is prone to estimation errors in mean vector and covariance matrix, leading to unrealistic portfolio weights, limited diversification, and weak out-of-sample performance. In response, a heuristic portfolio resampling approach...

Markowitz optimization plays an important role in modern portfolio theory. However, it is well-known that Markowitz optimization is highly affected by the estimation error of the mean vector and covariance matrix, resulting in extreme and/or unrealistic portfolio weights, lacks of...