This papers describes an estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk that is statistically superior to the Kalman filter as applied to this particular class of models. Two closely related estimators for the variances are introduced: A maximum...

The estimation of models with time-varying coefficients is usually performed by Kalman-Bucy filtering. The two-sided filter proposed by Schlicht (1988) is statistically and computationally superior to the one-sided Kalman-Bucy filter. This paper describes the estimation procedure and the program...

To analyze whether stock-market prices follow a random walk, the algebraic sign of their returns has been compared with a coin toss, which is a prominent example for a Bernoulli trial with equiprobable outcomes. Like coin tosses, signed returns lend themselves for a simple runs test for...

In this paper the authors set out to date-stamp periods of US housing price explosivity for the period 1830–2013. They make use of several robust techniques that allow them to identify such periods by determining when prices start to exhibit explosivity with respect to its past behaviour and...

This paper documents the function and use of the Gretl function package VCwrapper.pdf that implements the VC method for estimating time-varying coefficients in linear models as described in Schlicht (2021). It builds on the VCC program by Schlicht (2021a), is easy to use and highly configurable....

In this paper, the authors set out to date-stamp periods of US housing price explosivity for the period 1830-2013. They make use of several robust techniques that allow them to identify such periods by determining when prices start to exhibit explosivity with respect to its past behaviour and...

In recent years, especially in the aftermath of the global financial meltdown, the performance of South Asia capital markets has attracted the attention of the researchers and investors across the globe. The resilient shown provides the impetus to examine the efficient market hypothesis in these...

This paper builds a model of high-frequency equity returns by separately modeling the dynamics of trade-time returns and trade arrivals. Our main contributions are threefold. First, we characterize the distributional behavior of high-frequency asset returns both in ordinary clock time and in...

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...

This paper aims to focus weekly stock market prices from the CEECs (Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia, Poland, Bulgaria, the Slovak Republic, Latvia, Estonia, and the Czech Republic) markets for evidence of weak-form market efficiency. This is complemented by the use of...