This paper considers a class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models, characterized by time deterministic volatilities for the instantaneous forward rate. The bias that arises from using observed futures yields as a proxy for the unobserved instantaneous forward rate is analyzed. The...

Using different econometric models, Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337-364, 2006) addressed the practical problem of forecasting the yield curve by predicting the factors level, slope and curvature in the Nelson-Siegel framework. This paper has two main aims: on the one hand, to investigate the...

Dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) price interest rate derivatives based on the model­ implied fair values of the yield curve, ignoring any pricing residuals on the yield curve that are either from model approximations or market imperfections. In contrast, option pricing in practice often...

Research on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models so far has focused on the class having time-deterministic instantaneous forward rate volatility. In this case the forward rate is Markovian, even if the spot rate process is not. However, this Markovian feature can only be used...

This paper considers the dynamics for interest rate processes within a multi-factor Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) specification. Despite the flexibility of and the notable advances in theoretical research about the HJM models, the number of empirical studies is still inadequate. This paucity...

We propose a generalization of the Shirakawa (1991) model to capture the jump component in fixed income markets. The model is formulated under the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework, and allows the presence of a Wiener noise and a finite number of Poisson noises, each associated with a...

Using different econometric models, Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337-364, 2006) addressed the practical problem of forecasting the yield curve by predicting the factors level, slope and curvature in the Nelson-Siegel framework. This paper has two main aims: on the one hand, to investigate the...

The strong response of long-term interest rates to macroeconomic shocks has typically been explained in terms of informational asymmetries between the central bank and private agents. The standard models assume that the equilibrium real interest rate is constant over time and independent of...

This paper considers the dynamics for interest rate processes within the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) specification. It is well known that one of the difficulties in using this specification for estimation is the non-Markovian nature of the dynamics. The paper focuses on a fairly broad family...

In this paper, we build a model for the yield curve in Germany, from 1975 to 2001, and use it to test the Lucas Critique. We provide a first application of the new general-to-specific automatic model selection algorithm embodied in PcGets to term structure odeling, and use new super exogeneity...