Using a unique data set of detailed balance sheet information on mutual funds, we find that most mutual funds using derivatives do so to a very limited extent that has little discernable impact on returns. However, there exist two types of funds that make more extensive use of derivatives,...

This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped...

Suppose one uses a parametric density function based on the first four (conditional) moments to model risk. There are quite a few densities to choose from and depending on which is selected, one implicitly assumes very different tail behavior and very different feasible skewness/kurtosis...

Recent studies have emphasized that survey-based inflation risk measures are informative about future inflation, and thus are useful for monetary authorities. However, these data are typically only available at a quarterly frequency, whereas monetary policy decisions require a more frequent...

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This...

This article documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The article is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the...