Previous empirical evidence indicates that uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) does not hold for target zone exchange rates, like those in the European Monetary System and in the Nordic countries. We explore a target zone model where the market inferes the probability of a realignment of the...

Iceland is recovering after a severe crisis, which is an impressive turnaround by any standard. However, the improvement of the economy has led to a rising wage growth, which, if it continues, may lead to another boom-bust cycle. Persistent high wage growth is likely to induce the central bank...

In recent years, the OECD has measured the structural rate of unemployment by an indicator called the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment. The NAWRU indicator is an important element in the policy analysis of the OECD. The rise in the estimated NAWRUs is also taken as evidence that Nordic...

International comparisons show that countries with co-ordinated wage setting generally have lower unemployment than countries with less co-ordinated wage setting. This paper argues that the monetary regime may affect whether co-ordination among many wage setters is feasible. A strict monetary...

In most European countries, the prevailing terms of employment, including the nominal wage, can only be changed by mutual consent. If inflation is so low that nominal wages have to be cut, the workers have strategic advantage in the wage negotiations, which induces higher unemployment in...

Macroeconomists have for some time been aware that the New Keynesian Phillips curve, though highly popular in the literature, cannot explain the persistence observed in actual inflation. We argue that one of the more prominent alternative formulations, the Fuhrer and Moore (1995) relative...

Most wage-contracting models with rational expectations fail to replicate the persistence in inflation observed in the data. We argue that coordination problems and multiple equilibria are the keys to explaining inflation persistence. We develop a wage-contracting model in which workers are...

This paper explores the existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in 19 OECD countries, over the period 1973-1999, using data for hourly nominal wages at industry level. Based on a novel nonparametric statistical method, which allows for country and year specific variation in both the...

This paper reviews the literature on the effects of low steady-state inflation on wage formation, focusing on four different effects. First, under low inflation, downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) may prevent real wage cuts that would have happened had inflation been higher. Second, wages...

What is the role of "large players" like hedge funds and other highly leveraged institutions in speculative attacks? In recent theoretical work, large players may induce an attack by an early move, providing information to smaller agents. In contrast, many observers argue that large players are...